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Smoke em if You got em: Carbon Dioxide Emissions Exceed 30 Gigatons China, India, South Korea, Iran, & Iraq Grow Exponentially - ONYX RESEARCH, INC.®


South Korea displays impressive growth and a relatively balanced solid, liquid, and gas fuel mixture. Significant growth in solid and gas supplies is evident.

Iran's profile differs from most countries (see figure 8). Given the natural resources existing in the region, most fuel combustion is liquid. Gas is a close second. Solids are a flat line.

Total carbon dioxide emissions by Iran.  Solid, Liquid, Gas. Figure 8.   Iran's CO2 emissions. Total emissions plotted in gold. Red, green, and blue curves plot gas, liquid, and solid fuel emissions individually. Gray curve fits an exponential growth curve to gold curve data.

Even without solid supplies (coal) Iran displays strong growth (see growth table on right).

Iraq's fossil fuel emission profile is plotted in Figure 9. Compared with the most other countries, Iraq's emission curves are choppy (highly variable). Data indicate strong political challenges delay economic growth (unsurprising of course).

Total carbon dioxide emissions by Iraq.  Solid, Liquid, Gas. Figure 9.   Iraq's CO2 emissions. Total emissions plotted in gold. Red, green, and blue curves plot gas, liquid, and solid fuel emissions individually. Gray curve fits an exponential growth curve to gold curve data.

Emission numbers emerging over the next decade will be interesting. Exponential fit data display wide variability. Should Iraq prove geopolitically stable, strong growth numbers could be generated.

Countries, such as China and India, are growing strongly. Liquid fuels are currently too expensive. Numerous trade opportunities could exist should the region prove stable.


Seeking Investment Growth?

China, India, South Korea, Iran, and Iraq all exhibit exponential growth in fossil fuel energy usage.

China and India exhibit a heavy dependence on solid fuels, but will likely depend more heavily on liquid fuels as citizens seek to live Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous, the rock-star, or the jet-setter.

The Council on Foreign Relations has written China Poised to Shock World Oil Markets.

The following table aggregates exponential growth values for China, India, South Korea, Iran, and (possibly) Iraq.

Exponential emission growth numbers for China, India, South Korea, Iran, & Iraq.

Whether companies anticipate and finance deals handling such impressive growth is an unknown.

Based on the recent work by Mr. Hofmeister (Shell Oil's former CEO), the United States is institutionally /bureaucratically gridlocked like a 9-day 100 kilometer Beijing automotive sticky-wicket.

With 100 kilometer traffic jams, how long can exponential growth be maintained?

Others have asked the same question, often couched under the term "Sustainability".

A short excerpt discussing how China and the United States interaction will unfold is embedded below.

The full communication with James Fallows (The Atlantic) and Stephen Roach (Morgan Stanley): China's Economy, Growth, & Sustainability, is worth your time.

Developed countries, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Germany, have flat or declining emission numbers. Investing in such countries must, therefore, be much more targeted to specific services/industries. The Russian Federation is an unknown.

Data Reference: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center

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